(NAIROBI, KENYA) – Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has begun a 45 day retreat at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri County, a move that will keep him away from political rallies during the crucial Ol Kalou constituency by election campaign period. The by election, set for July 16, 2026, is being framed as a rehearsal for the 2027 General Election contest between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance and Mr Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party in the populous Mt Kenya region.
Mr Gachagua confirmed his plans last Wednesday after concluding a three day tour of Western Kenya. He said his supporters had instructed him to focus on building a strategy for the United Opposition from his Wamunyoro home. The former deputy president said the goal of the 45 day period is to consult with opinion leaders on how the opposition can settle on a single presidential candidate to face President Ruto.
The decision has drawn mixed reactions from political observers. Some believe Mr Gachagua’s absence from the campaign trail could hurt the DCP candidate, Mr Kamau Ngotho. His direct involvement would likely have energised anti Ruto sentiment and helped set the mood for the 2027 polls. Others view the retreat as a strategic calculation, allowing Mr Gachagua to avoid direct responsibility should the DCP candidate fail to win the seat.
The Ol Kalou by election has drawn nine candidates cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. They include Mr Ngotho of DCP, Abdullahi Hussein of the Federal Party of Kenya, Kariuki Kamau of the People’s Renaissance Party, Samuel Muchina of UDA, Edward Mathenge of the Kenya Moja Movement, Rachael Njoroge of the People’s Democratic Party, Wilson Kigwa of the Jubilee Party, Stephen Wanyoike of the National Liberal Party and Edward Muchiri of the Party of National Unity.
UDA has maintained a winning streak in recent by elections, including in Emurua Dikirr where DCP lost last month. The ruling party and its broad based partner, the Orange Democratic Movement, have won the majority of seats since the electoral commission was reconstituted. The UDA has also employed tactics such as bringing on board aspirants who lost in the DCP nominations.
The outcome of the Ol Kalou contest carries significant political weight. A win would cement Mr Gachagua’s position as a new political force in the Mt Kenya region. A loss would allow President Ruto to claim continued backing in an area that gave him close to three million votes in the 2022 presidential election.
Mr Gachagua’s allies have expressed confidence in securing the seat despite the retreat. Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, also known as Mejja Donk, said the Nyandarua Senator would lead the campaign effort. He added that if reinforcement is needed, Mr Gachagua would be called upon to join the trail. Gatanga MP Edward Muriu described the retreat as symbolic, saying it does not entirely block Mr Gachagua from participating in campaigns if necessary.
The broader opposition landscape continues to shift. Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has assembled a presidential campaign team, the clearest sign yet that he intends to pursue the top prize rather than settle for a kingmaker role. The team is headed by former Commission on Administrative Justice Secretary Mercy Wambua. It includes former Azimio coalition officials Philip Kisia and Caroli Omondi, as well as former South Eastern Kenya University Vice Chancellor Prof Geoffrey Mwanza Muluvi.
The campaign is pursuing a fundraising model that relies on small contributions from ordinary citizens rather than wealthy patrons. Machakos Governor Wavinya Ndeti said the aim is to create a people driven movement. A digital platform has been launched to allow supporters to register as volunteers and contribute. At the current exchange rate of approximately 150 Kenyan Shillings to one US dollar in June 2026, contributions of Sh100 from market traders and small business owners equate to less than one US dollar per person, but the campaign hopes volume will build a sustainable war chest.
Simultaneously, discussions are taking place between Mr Musyoka’s camp and the Linda Mwananchi Movement led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. Multiple sources have confirmed talks about registering a new coalition under the name Ukombozi Linda Mwananchi Alliance, with Mr Musyoka and Mr Sifuna as potential torchbearers. However, leaders from both sides have been cautious in public. Wiper vice chairperson and Makueni Governor Mutula Kilonzo Jnr dismissed reports of a concluded agreement as premature, while United Opposition spokesperson Mukhisa Kituyi gave a flat denial.
The political calculations are further complicated by the shadow of former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Some opposition figures are said to favour a Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i partnership, believing such a ticket could attract broader national support.
DAP Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa confirmed that channels of communication with Linda Mwananchi remain open. He said the opposition’s immediate focus is national mobilisation and building consensus before settling on a presidential candidate. Mr Wamalwa pointed to the 2002 coalition that united behind Mwai Kibaki and ended KANU’s decades long rule as a model worth copying.
Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli of Multimedia University described Mr Sifuna as the man to watch. He said a Kalonzo Sifuna ticket would pose a strong challenge to President Ruto. The assessment reflects a growing view that Mr Sifuna could connect traditional opposition constituencies with younger voters seeking fresh leadership.
President Ruto, meanwhile, has dismissed the opposition campaign as empty noise. Speaking in Kakamega on Saturday during the launch of Shirikiana Sacco, he described opposition leaders as people with loudspeakers making disturbances in markets, churches and funerals. He listed government projects in the Western region, including the revival of Mumias and Sony Sugar factories, construction of a level six health facility in Kakamega worth Sh8 billion, roughly US$53 million, and the injection of Sh100 billion, about US$667 million, towards affordable housing, markets and university hotels across five Western counties.
The Ol Kalou by election and the wider opposition realignment are unfolding against a backdrop of intense political activity. With 31 days until voters in Ol Kalou cast their ballots, the contest is being watched as a measure of the shifting political mood ahead of 2027.