(KYIV) – Ukrainian forces have systematically degraded Russian military logistics across the southern front, severing fuel supplies to occupied Crimea and cutting off approximately 140,000 Russian troops from basic provisions, according to a Kyiv Post live briefing featuring former United States Navy SEAL squadron leader Chuck Pfarrer.
Pfarrer, a veteran special operations commander, stated that Russia’s ability to conduct military logistics has sharply diminished over the past 24 months along the entire zero line. He noted that Russian forces have been reduced to using motorcycles and quad bikes to move supplies, with Chinese dune buggies widely distributed earlier in the war now completely destroyed. “The majority of supplies approximate to the zero line now are moved by motorcycles, quad bikes,” Pfarrer said.
Russian soldiers are reportedly being forced to forage for food. “In the case of Russian soldiers, they are forced to forage, right? If you find a chicken, you eat. If you don’t,” Pfarrer stated, invoking Napoleon’s maxim that an army moves on its stomach. Critical supplies delivered to the frontline consist of ammunition and replacements, both of which are consumable items for Russia.
Ukraine has shifted its targeting strategy deeper behind Russian lines, striking logistics hubs 20 to 50 kilometres and in some cases several hundred kilometres from the zero line. Pfarrer explained that these deeper targets present “much more lucrative logistical targets” because they are concentrated on ground lines of communication and supply, meaning highways, railroads and depot arrangements become denser. “If you have an ammunition depot in the city of Donetsk and we see those can be pretty dense but when you move deeper into Crimea or Kursk or Belgorod or other places you are hitting depots that don’t contain mortar rounds but they contain Iskander missiles,” he said.
Crimea’s Supply Routes Under Pressure
South of Kherson across the Dnipro River, two highways, the M17 and the M18, run into Crimea and have become the focus of Ukrainian strike operations. “That’s where Ukraine is putting the hurt on Russia right now,” Pfarrer said.
Only three road and rail junctions connect Crimea to the Russian mainland: the Kerch Bridge, described by Pfarrer as “the unlawfully built bridge that is actually damaged but still standing”; the M18 highway in the east which comes through Melitopol; and the M17 highway which comes down from Kherson. Pfarrer noted that Russian supply vehicles are being forced to drive an additional 350 miles around the Sea of Azov because the Kerch Bridge is operating at significantly reduced capacity.
“The Kerch Bridge is under such pressure and frankly, you know, if you want to buy the Kerch Bridge, I’d get an inspection first,” Pfarrer said, referencing multiple Ukrainian strikes on the structure.
Pfarrer, who has expertise in underwater demolition, described the latest Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge in detail. Ukrainian forces manoeuvred an unmanned underwater vessel past anti-swimmer booms, anti-boat booms and Russian patrols. The vessel carried approximately one and a half to two tons of C4 explosive and detonated it against the westernmost abutments.
“The Ukrainians maneuvered about a ton and a half or maybe two tons of C4 against the pile bundle and set it off,” Pfarrer said. The strike removed an estimated 30 percent of the capacity of that abutment to hold the weight of the bridge. “That means every truck that goes over has to be lighter loaded. Every train is shorter, carries less weight per car, and has to move slower,” he explained.
Fuel Crisis and Blockade
Lines to cross the Kerch Bridge have exceeded 600 cars, while queues for petrol have stretched well over two kilometres. Petrol and diesel have reportedly been exhausted across the entire peninsula. “There is no diesel on the island. And if you don’t have diesel, you’re not moving your what we technically call army trucks,” Pfarrer said.
Jason Smart, Kyiv Post correspondent, reported that Russian military bloggers have begun describing the situation as a blockade. “We’re talking about how Crimea is being cut off or it’s having difficulties getting oil or it’s having difficulties with the bridge. But let’s really call it what it is. A blockade of Crimea has begun by the Ukrainians and they’re not going to let up,” one military blogger stated, according to Smart.
Pfarrer noted that Russia can no longer rely on amphibious warfare capabilities to resupply Crimea. Following the sinking of the guided missile cruiser Moskva early in the war, Russia’s amphibious warfare capacity has been effectively neutralised. “They’re out of the amphibious warfare game,” Pfarrer said, adding that any attempt to land naval infantry would result in them joining “the underwater historical park next to the Moskva.”
Ukraine has also begun attacking all rail traffic in Crimea. “If you shut down the rail traffic, I mean, try to get from Washington to Boston, right? You need a train,” Pfarrer said. “It’s great to have paratroopers and C5 Galaxies and everything else but if you want to move a division you need a train.”
Russian Military Degradation
Pfarrer assessed that the combat effectiveness of the Russian army has declined since its high water mark in early 2023, and Russia now controls substantively less territory than it did then. Russian forces are losing a vehicle or transport unit every eight minutes, according to Smart.
Russia has lost almost 12,000 main battle tanks, a figure Pfarrer described as “more than France, Germany, England, Belgium, all of NATO tanks in Europe combined and about three times as many.” T-80 tanks have been completely destroyed, leaving only T-72s dating back to the Disco Fever era, and even T-55s which Pfarrer noted are “70 years old. Come on. Elvis is dead, but the T-55 is still going to the battlefield.”
Russian frontal aviation has been severely degraded. Ukraine has destroyed most of Russia’s A-50 AWACS fleet, with only five to six aircraft remaining airworthy. These are primarily used for defensive patrols to detect incoming Ukrainian cruise missiles.
Russian armoured personnel carriers present a particular hazard to their own troops. “Being inside a Russian made APC is literally a death sentence,” Pfarrer said, explaining that the rear doors of the vehicle are actually fuel tanks. “The doors that are supposed to keep you, they’re full of fuel. So these guys ride on top where they’re annihilated.”
Pfarrer assessed Russian casualties at approaching 1.4 million killed or wounded.
Information Bubble and Political Instability
Smart reported that Russian recruitment targets are being missed by more than 30 percent month on month, while casualty rates continue to accelerate. The average age of new recruits is 45 years old. “That’s the age literally where any other military in the world, they’re pushing you out,” Pfarrer said.
The Russian dictator is reportedly maintained in an information bubble where battlefield realities are systematically distorted. Pfarrer cited an incident in which a general was awarded the Hero of the Russian Federation for capturing Kupiansk, a city that was at that time wholly and completely controlled by Ukraine. “So it appears, you know, to be as generous as I can, there’s a bubble, an informational bubble that Putin is kept in,” Pfarrer said.
Smart noted that the Russian National Bank has indicated less than three months of liquidity remaining to fund the war effort. “If they burn through that, then we will start to see real problems as the wheels come off the bus because then they stop paying the soldiers. And you stop paying the soldiers, you have real problems on the front lines,” Smart said.
Pfarrer stated categorically that Russia’s 1982 style combined arms ground manoeuvre warfare will never succeed again on a modern battlefield. “Four years ago, a kid walked into the local military commissariat and not even the high level and said, ‘Look, I’m going to put an RPG warhead costs 30 bucks on this Mavic drone. Costs 800 bucks. I’m going to fly it into a tank.’ He took out a tank. They said, ‘Kid, you’re in the drone business.'”
Smart assessed that Russia is now facing the conditions for a spark that could trigger broader political instability. “You already have gasoline poured everywhere, but we need that spark to set it all on fire,” he said, citing economic collapse, pension cuts and military disintegration as potential catalysts.
“Military defeat is the handmaiden of political change in Russia, isn’t it?” Pfarrer concluded.