(KYIV) — Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy has forecast grain exports exceeding 40 million tonnes for the 2025/26 marketing year, alongside a strategic push to increase domestic processing and higher value added production, UNN reports.
Preliminary estimates indicate Ukraine can export approximately 14 million tonnes of wheat, 25 million tonnes of maize and 1.52 million tonnes of barley. These figures represent roughly 6 percent, 12 percent and 4 percent of global exports for these crops respectively, according to the Ministry of Economy.
Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotsky emphasised the importance of shifting from raw commodity exports to processed goods. “Our task is to create more value within the country. We already have strong examples: sunflower oil and meal, where Ukraine maintains powerful positions, as well as bioethanol, the export of which has nearly tripled since the start of the full scale war,” Vysotsky stated.
As of 2 June, farmers have sown 97 percent of planned areas, equating to 5.84 million hectares of grain and leguminous crops, according to Ministry of Economy data.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that harvests in 2026 will differ only marginally from the previous year. The grain and leguminous crop harvest is expected to reach 62.9 million tonnes, unchanged from the prior forecast. Oilseed harvest assumptions have been slightly downgraded to 20.2 million tonnes.
Despite expectations of a higher sunflower harvest, a significant reduction in soybean and rapeseed harvests is projected due to damage to some crops and a decrease in the area planted with rapeseed.
The NBU assessed the effect on prices from the revision of these assumptions as neutral. It noted that increased fertiliser prices caused by the war in the Middle East will not have a significant impact on yields in 2026, as farmers obtained the necessary stocks in advance.