(MINSK, BELARUS) – Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has taken the extraordinary step of deactivating drone relay stations used by Russian forces to attack Ukrainian cities, just days after Kyiv issued a seven day ultimatum demanding their removal.
The concession marks a dramatic shift in the posture of one of the Russian dictator’s closest allies and comes amid a growing international consensus that Moscow cannot achieve a military victory in its war against Ukraine.
For years, Lukashenko permitted Russian forces to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its full scale invasion. The relay stations enabled Moscow to maintain communication links with large waves of attack drones targeting Ukrainian urban centres.
However, following a direct warning from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, those relay stations ceased functioning. Whether the installations have been dismantled entirely remains unconfirmed, but the initial move represents a clear attempt to appease Kyiv.
The development follows a series of uncharacteristic public statements from Lukashenko. In recent weeks, he admitted before foreign media that Russia could not defeat Ukraine militarily. He also conceded that Belarus, even with support from Russian forces stationed on its soil, could not defend itself against a potential Ukrainian offensive.
Such admissions stand in stark contrast to years of rhetoric from Minsk maintaining that Moscow would ultimately prevail. They also implicitly acknowledge Ukraine’s growing battlefield momentum, a reality increasingly accepted even within the sceptical Trump administration.
Senior Trump officials, who last year declared Ukraine held no leverage and faced total destruction, have this week described Ukrainian military operations as impressive. The shifting American tone accompanies wider recognition of Ukraine’s improved strategic position.
Analysts suggest Lukashenko’s behaviour reflects a dictator hedging against the collapse of his primary sponsor. The Belarusian leader lost the last election, according to independent observers, and relies on Russian security services and military support to suppress domestic opposition and maintain his grip on power. The legitimate winner of that election remains exiled in Europe.
Now, with Russia suffering sustained military attrition and its war aims increasingly out of reach, Lukashenko appears to be calculating his own survival. His recent release of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief from the United States points to an effort to build bridges with Western powers, something he previously avoided by integrating Belarus’s economy almost entirely with Russia’s.
Simultaneously, Belarus has accelerated its own military mobilisation. While some Western commentators interpret the buildup as preparation for entering the war against Ukraine, a more plausible explanation aligns with the historical behaviour of dictators: the armed forces are being reinforced to protect the regime from internal threats, not to project power abroad.
Lukashenko governs a population that broadly views Ukraine as a fraternal nation. More Belarusian nationals have fought on Ukraine’s side during the conflict than have fought for Russia. Any order to attack Ukraine could trigger mutiny among a citizenry already resistant to the dictator’s legitimacy.
The deactivation of the relay stations in Belarus serves as the strongest signal yet that Lukashenko fears the consequences of Ukrainian retaliation more than the displeasure of the Kremlin. For the Russian dictator, the desertion of his most dependent ally would amount to a strategic loss almost as damaging as any battlefield defeat.