(JUBA) – Global crude prices jumped sharply on 26 June 2026 after a civilian cargo vessel came under fire while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil passes each day. American West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than two percent to trade above US$71 a barrel, while Brent moved back towards the US$75 mark.
The sudden price movement threatens to raise the import bill for fuel dependent economies across East Africa, including South Sudan, which imports refined petroleum products for domestic consumption even as it exports crude oil.
South Sudan remains uniquely exposed to both sides of the oil price equation. The country relies on crude exports for almost all government revenue, yet it must buy back refined fuels such as diesel and petrol on international markets because it has no functioning refinery of its own.
A sustained rise in global crude prices would increase the dollar value of South Sudan’s export cargoes, but it would also push up the cost of the refined products the country imports.
At the same time, any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz affects the global benchmark prices against which South Sudan’s own crude sales are priced, adding fresh uncertainty to budget planning in Juba.
The attack took place off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the vessel was struck by a projectile roughly 7.5 nautical miles southeast of the port of Dahit while navigating the Strait of Hormuz area.
Two United States officials told Reuters that the Iranian military carried out the shelling, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly.
No official confirmation of Iranian involvement has yet been issued, and the United States administration has said it is still investigating the circumstances of the attack. Details on casualties or the full extent of damage to the vessel remain unavailable.
The incident immediately shifted market sentiment. Oil prices had only recently fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the United States-Iran war, as traders had begun to discount the risk of supply disruption. Those assumptions were reversed within hours.
After reports of the shelling emerged, traders started pricing in a higher risk premium for cargoes passing through the strait. Additional concern was caused by the decision of the United Nations International Maritime Organization to temporarily suspend the evacuation of vessels through the waterway, a move that signalled the seriousness of the threat in the eyes of international maritime authorities.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important choke points in the global energy trade. A substantial portion of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas consumed in Asia, Europe and East Africa transits the strait. Any interruption to shipping there affects not only the physical supply of barrels but also the paper markets where future cargoes are bought and sold.
For a country such as South Sudan, whose crude is priced with reference to the Brent and WTI benchmarks, the price rise translates directly into the valuation of its own export shipments, at least in the short term. However, the same price movement also raises the cost of every litre of imported fuel that powers generators, vehicles and machinery across the country.
The shipping disruption comes at a time when fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz had only just resumed and recovered to pre war volumes, according to separate Bloomberg reports on the same day. The broader picture is one of fragile supply chains repeatedly tested by military action and political tension in the Gulf.
South Sudan, although geographically distant from the strait, is linked to it through the pricing mechanisms that govern the global oil trade. A single incident off the coast of Oman can shift the financial assumptions upon which Juba builds its annual budget, influences the pump price paid by businesses in Juba town and affects the foreign exchange available to importers of essential goods.