(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine has executed a systematic campaign to sever occupied Crimea from reliable electricity, fuel, and water supplies, leaving the peninsula in a state of accelerating collapse and prompting a mass exodus of Russian settlers.
The operation, carried out over recent weeks using Firepoint drones and precision strikes, has destroyed power plants, substations, and fuel storage facilities across Crimea. The Balaklava power plant has been hit. Thermal power plants in Simferopol have been struck. Every significant fuel tank on the peninsula has been targeted. High resolution drone footage released by Ukrainian forces shows the thermal signatures of storage containers being systematically eliminated, including a minor oil depot near the port in Kerch destroyed several days ago.
The mayor of Sevastopol issued a public address acknowledging the severity of the situation. “Dear residents, as a result of the enemy’s attack on our energy infrastructure, the city is temporarily without power,” he stated. “The enemy is striking again, trying to deprive us of our usual living conditions, and so panic.” Residents were instructed to conserve phone batteries, disable background applications, dim screens, and avoid overloading the grid if power is restored. They were also urged to assist elderly neighbours and remain calm.
The appeal for calm belies the reality that power will not be restored to normal operational levels. Ukraine possesses the capacity to conduct these strikes every night, and all of Crimea’s air defence systems have been destroyed. Radars are down. Any replacement systems deployed by Russia would be detected and struck by Firepoint drones before becoming operational.
Russian state media outlet TASS announced that major banks in Sevastopol remain operational and that sufficient cash reserves are available. The necessity of such an announcement indicates the opposite: with power out and digital payment systems offline, residents are scrambling for hard currency to purchase food and fuel. The announcement is a crisis indicator, not a reassurance.
The governor of Crimea addressed the fuel situation directly. “Regarding the situation, the fuel situation is the most difficult. I want to say that measures are being taken today and under the president’s instructions they are sufficient to resolve the issue,” he stated. He added: “How long it will take I cannot say with certainty right now and I cannot publicly disclose the action plan. However, we are taking action. No one is standing still regarding power outages. Unfortunately, given hostile drone activity, it is impossible to maintain a schedule that would satisfy everyone, often the schedules that are published differ from what is actually happening on the ground.”
The governor asked residents to trust that a plan exists while conceding he cannot say when fuel supplies will stabilise or publicly disclose the action plan. Schedules for power restoration are published but bear no relation to what occurs.
Simultaneously, Ukraine has targeted the land connections between Crimea and occupied Kherson. Bridges over the canal near Armiansk, the main highway bridge in Chonhar, the adjacent rail line, and smaller bridges in Henichesk have all been damaged or destroyed. The cumulative effect weakens both rail and road access northward into occupied territories. Where bridges have been rendered impassable, Russian forces have resorted to filling canals with sand and earth, creating temporary crossings that degrade in rain and force vehicles to slow to a crawl.
The Kerch Strait Bridge remains standing, and Ukraine has deliberately refrained from destroying it. Satellite imagery from 24 June revealed 1,500 civilian vehicles queued along a 10 kilometre stretch, occupants waiting to cross back into mainland Russia. Ukraine is permitting this evacuation because a depopulated peninsula simplifies eventual military liberation. The queue moves slowly because every vehicle must be manually inspected for explosives, the method Ukraine used to damage the bridge in 2022 and 2023. Russia has deployed smoke screens in attempts to obscure the bridge from drones. Analysts assess Ukraine now possesses the capability to destroy the structure at any moment and is simply choosing the optimal time.
Videos circulating daily show Russian settlers distressed at having to abandon their homes. One woman filmed herself in a powerless, waterless dwelling with no fuel, explaining she had no choice but to take her children and flee.
The current population of Crimea and Sevastopol stands at approximately 2.5 million. Between 500,000 and 800,000 of these are illegal Russian settlers who arrived after the 2014 occupation. Around 200,000 Crimeans, including senior officials and Tatars, have already escaped to mainland Ukraine. An estimated 250,000 Crimean Tatars remain on the peninsula, and support for Ukraine persists across all communities, as demonstrated by the frequency of arrests of alleged Ukrainian operatives.
A few months without fuel, electricity, and a functioning tourism industry may persuade more settlers to return to Russia. Crimea, once described as an unsinkable aircraft carrier and the Russian Navy’s crown jewel for Black Sea dominance, has become a zone of constant losses. Russia lacks the air defences to protect the peninsula. Every night, tens of millions of dollars in military equipment is destroyed. Electronic warfare jamming stations deployed to block Starlink for Ukrainian drones were themselves destroyed by those drones.
The long range strike campaign continues to expand. Drones travelled 1,300 kilometres to strike the Bashneft refineries in Bashkortostan, facilities struck previously but still operational. The Armavir oil depot, which supplies fuel to two Russian regions, is burning after an overnight attack. Moscow’s largest refinery cannot process crude until 2027, according to Reuters. A series of drone strikes over three days left the facility entirely offline. High resolution before and after imagery shows the administrative building standing and then gutted. Employee vehicles that once filled the car park are gone.
Russia has asked Kazakhstan for emergency petrol supplies. Kazakhstan is expected to sell fuel at premium prices, draining Russian state wealth. Separately, Russia is importing refined petrol from India, shipping crude oil thousands of kilometres to be processed and returned as finished product, an inefficient and expensive arrangement that Russia has been forced to accept. Fuel sales are now restricted in 22 Russian regions.
Videos from across Russia show long queues at petrol stations. When a station receives fuel, alerts circulate and drivers rush to fill up. Many cannot find petrol at all. Prices have doubled, tripled, or quadrupled compared with two or three years ago. At one station, the price was 136 roubles per litre, equivalent to approximately 1.52 US dollars per litre or 5.75 dollars per gallon.
One Russian man stated bluntly: “Don’t you think the reason we have no gas in the country isn’t because people are filling up an extra 20 litres into a canister? It’s because people neglected safety and our oil depots got bombed. This was done systematically, not all at once, not in a single day, but gradually, one then another, then a third, and now we are throwing stones at people who are supposedly creating a panic. But even if they stop creating a panic in this country, gas won’t magically appear in Russia. Wake up.”
Physical altercations are breaking out at petrol stations. Google search trends in Russia show a sharp increase in queries for how to siphon petrol. One woman posted an instructional video teaching others the skill, stating she never thought she would need it.
On the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, territory held by Russia since 2022, Ukrainian troops have raised the national flag. The area was bombarded relentlessly until Russian forces abandoned their positions, unable to receive resupply and subjected to constant harassment. Every structure on the spit has been destroyed, leaving no cover. A drone delivered the flag and planted it on a recognisable building.
Across the front, the attrition of Russian logistics is intensifying. Over five days, Ukrainian videos documented 193 Russian trucks and vehicles destroyed on key supply routes. The daily toll reached 47 one day and 56 the next, averaging nearly 40 vehicles per day. One video shows a Russian driver passing a destroyed truck on the highway near Mariupol. Russia has implemented no new countermeasures, continuing to send supply vehicles along the same exposed roads.
The Russian dictator addressed the strikes for the first time since the attacks on Moscow, stating: “As the situation on the front rapidly worsens for the Kyiv regime and they lose territory one after another and our fighters are taking one settlement after another, they have adopted the tactic of striking our civilian targets and civilian infrastructure. They are attempting to cause problems with energy supplies and impact the tourist season. To be honest, they are telling us this directly through various channels. I would like to ask, of course, the primary responsibility for countering these threats lies with the Ministry of Defense and other security agencies. At the time, the government of Russia of the Russian Federation should also take additional measures to minimize and eliminate the consequences of such actions.”
The Russian state is also turning inward against its own elite. Control of one of the country’s largest warehouse property owners has been transferred to a state company. The former Aeroflot chief executive has been arrested in Moscow. Analysts describe an accelerating pattern of the Kremlin cannibalising loyal oligarchs to extract funds for the war effort.
France has intercepted a shadow fleet tanker transiting off the coast of Sicily. French special forces boarded and seized the vessel, which was operating in violation of maritime law.
Belarus has halted the use of relay stations that Russia had been using to guide drones into northern Ukraine. After Russian forces lost Starlink capability, they constructed repeater towers on Belarusian territory. President Zelenskyy gave Belarus one week to disable these towers or face Ukrainian strikes against them. Lukashenko complied within three days. President Zelenskyy confirmed: “According to the information I was briefed on by the commander in chief and intelligence, as of June 22nd, the relay stations have stopped operating on the territory of Belarus. Whether they have been dismantled or not, honestly, I don’t know yet, but we are working on it. I’m following it very closely and receiving daily reports. The fact is is that the relay stations are currently not operating.”
Russia has expressed frustration that the United States has not implemented purported understandings reached between Trump and the Russian dictator at a summit in Alaska. No formal agreement was signed or announced. US Secretary of State Rubio stated there was no Ukrainian agreement reached at the Alaska summit, contradicting Moscow’s claims. The US State Department has assessed that Ukraine is currently winning the war. When asked about Ukraine’s performance during a visit by the NATO Secretary General, Trump stated that Ukraine is “performing pretty well.”
Hungary has stalled European Union negotiations on membership for Ukraine and Moldova, the sole member state to oppose the next procedural step.
Denmark has committed 15,000 long range artillery rounds to Ukraine. The United Kingdom has announced a 380 million pound (approximately 483 million US dollars) support package ahead of a key international conference. Apple has removed VK, Russia’s largest social network, from its app store, following the earlier removal of Max on surveillance grounds.