(MINSK, BELARUS) – Belarus has complied with a Ukrainian ultimatum to disable drone signal relay stations that Russia has been using to direct attacks against northern Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed.
The relay stations, which had been operating from Belarusian territory, ceased functioning at the beginning of this week. Moscow had relied on this infrastructure to guide unmanned aerial vehicles targeting Ukrainian cities, including the regional centre of Lutsk.
President Zelenskyy stated that the illegitimate president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, accepted the ultimatum almost immediately. The decision marks a significant operational setback for Russian forces, which have consistently utilised Belarusian territory as a launch platform since the full scale invasion commenced in 2022.
“We know that roads are built close to the border with Ukraine on the Belarusian side and a lot of storages for oil and other stuff, which means that any time when the Russian dictator orders, people can start attacking us from the Belarusian territory,” Ukrainian intelligence assessments indicate. Despite this infrastructure build up, analysts suggest that Belarusian soldiers would resist direct participation in the conflict.
The Belarusian army numbers approximately 40,000 personnel, a force regarded as insufficient to alter the strategic balance independently. “If they choose to attack us from the north, they would need Russian soldiers because Russia loses approximately 50,000 soldiers per month,” military observers note. This casualty rate, sustained over a single month of operations, equals the entire Belarusian standing army.
The relationship between Moscow and Minsk remains one of profound dependency. Belarus was silently annexed by the Kremlin long before the special military operation began, with Lukashenko functioning only because the Russian dictator permits him to do so. His political career, and possibly his life, is fully dependent on the Kremlin.
Lukashenko’s attempts to balance between compliance with Russian orders and avoiding direct confrontation with Ukraine have become increasingly evident. He understands that the Russian dictator cannot protect even his own regions, nor can he safeguard Russian forces in Crimea, which has become a symbol of the war and the image of the “gatherer of the Russian lands.”
Ukrainian precision strikes have destroyed 40 percent of Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, and the resulting crisis is spreading to more and more regions, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Lukashenko does not want Ukrainian drones over Minsk and recognises that the Russian dictator can offer no meaningful protection.
Belarus also hosts a major oil refinery in Mazyr, the coordinates of which are known to Ukrainian forces. The facility remains untouched because Ukraine does not have a direct war with Belarus, and Russian forces actively utilise this refinery. Its operational security is vital for Belarusian economic life.
Russia currently needs Belarus as a neutral country to circumvent sanctions. Some restrictions on Belarus were lifted following engagement from Washington, and Moscow has used Belarusian banking systems and channels to purchase aviation parts for civilian aircraft. The Kremlin requires this window of economic opportunity as it attempts to salvage sanctioned industries.
The decision to switch off the relay stations may not have been an individual act of defiance by Lukashenko. Analysts suggest the Kremlin may have supported the move, understanding that Russia is losing and requires Belarus as a neutral space. The untouched oil refinery in Mazyr provides critical economic lifeline.
“Just as they switched it off, they can switch it on,” Ukrainian analysts caution. The suspension could last “for an hour, a day, a month.” Everything depends on the strength of the Ukrainian armed forces, which continue to implement the only working peace plan: the defeat and demilitarisation of Russia.
Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their reach, with Russian oil refineries burning and the Kremlin unable to prevent these strikes. Lukashenko, described as rational in his decisions despite his authoritarian rule, sees the trajectory clearly.
Nobody in Ukraine trusts Lukashenko, a leader who imprisoned political opponents and whose tenure of more than 30 years makes him the longest serving ruler in Europe. He lost the 2020 election in reality and occupies power illegitimately. Yet unlike the Russian dictator, he does not possess the imperial obsession with Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.
The Ukrainian armed forces include Belarusian volunteers, and intelligence networks operating within Belarus have repeatedly destroyed railways and other infrastructure to prevent attacks. The fate that Russia prepared for Ukraine in 2014 was averted through national resistance.
President Zelenskyy’s ultimatum was viewed by many analysts as a test. Lukashenko could have consulted the Kremlin and Russia could have provoked Ukraine into striking legitimate military sites on Belarusian territory. Moscow could then have used such an incident to attack NATO countries, claiming the war was expanding and justifying further escalation. This did not happen.
The Belarusian dictator is attempting to distance himself while simultaneously following Kremlin orders, a precarious position that may prove unsustainable as Russian collapse accelerates.